01458nas a2200121 4500008004100000245009200041210006900133260001200202520101400214100001901228700002001247856006901267 2014 eng d00aPrimary Energy Analysis: A New Approach beyond Extant Growth Theories (revised version)0 aPrimary Energy Analysis A New Approach beyond Extant Growth Theo aLeipzig3 a

A best possible indicator to represent the whole economic activity should be not the GDP but "the whole industrial production (WIP)" because the former represents only the added value sector of an economy, while the latter comprises both the GDP and all intermediate throughputs in the economy. The historical change of WIP compared with the primary energy supply (PES) in Japan revealed a close structural correlation between WIP and PES: Japan’s once rapid growth had a remarkable feature that a sharp rise of the PES occurred during 1955-1973 and that of the WIP, during 1965-1985, with a clear time-lag of ten years or so. And the dual stagnation of PES and WIP has deeply rooted in Japan’s economy since the bubble burst in 1990. This serious economic frustration has long been regarded as peculiar to Japan but, since the Lehman shock, such a situation has suddenly become a world standard. We then try to analyze this situation semi-quantitatively in the light of logistic function analysis.

1 aAoki, Hidekazu1 aKawamiya, Nobuo uhttps://degrowth.community/conference2014/scientific-papers/358800495nas a2200121 4500008004100000245007400041210006900115260001200184520006900196100001900265700002000284856006900304 2014 eng d00aPrimary Energy Analysis: A New Approach beyond Extant Growth Theories0 aPrimary Energy Analysis A New Approach beyond Extant Growth Theo aLeipzig3 a

Updated version - Primary Energy Analysis: A New Approach

1 aAoki, Hidekazu1 aKawamiya, Nobuo uhttps://degrowth.community/conference2014/scientific-papers/348501230nas a2200121 4500008004100000245011800041210006900159260001200228520076000240100001901000700002001019856006901039 2014 eng d00aThe Ultimate Dilemma For Artificial Capitals: ever scarcer natural resources claim ever larger artificial capital0 aUltimate Dilemma For Artificial Capitals ever scarcer natural re aLeipzig3 a

The theory of “Weak Sustainability” has long presupposed a favorable substitutability of artificial capitals for natural resources. All the growth-oriented economists favored this paradigm and used to conceive various optimistic growth paths. However, prolonged lavish consumption of fossil fuels has recently brought forth deterioration of reserve quality and of remarked degradation of ERoEI (Energy Return on Energy Investment), which reciprocally implies ever larger artificial capital to be claimed for extraction. The latter, instead of substituting the former (natural resources), must now be consumed in an ever increasing amount just for extracting the primary energy. Key words: Resources, Capital, Substitutability, Growth, Depletion

1 aAoki, Hidekazu1 aKawamiya, Nobuo uhttps://degrowth.community/conference2014/scientific-papers/3743